Finding every methane leak from space

How far are satellites from finding most large methane leaks worldwide?

Satellites can detect large methane plumes, and in at least one documented case a satellite detection was followed by a reported repair. Carbon Mapper's Tanager-1 can trace some plumes to a specific site. Europe's Sentinel-5P maps methane across the globe, but it can only pinpoint the largest and most isolated sources. The sources reviewed do not show what share of large leaks worldwide is detected. Operators responded to about 12% of the alerts UNEP sent in 2025.

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WHERE WE AREPilots

Close. Early pilots are running in the real world.

Satellite systems detect large plumes in routine use, and commercial instruments are in orbit. One leak has been traced, reported repaired and checked on a later pass in a peer-reviewed paper. A vendor also reports a repaired leak in May 2026, but the sources reviewed document only these two cases. Attribution to a named facility works for some sources, not for most. Operator response is low, and the sources reviewed do not show verified repairs at scale. Real use with limited coverage and an incomplete detect-and-repair loop fits the pilot stage.

The tech tree

Everything recorded on Vrulum that this future needs, oldest foundations at the top and the goal at the bottom. Lines show what each step requires.

What it takes: Finding every methane leak from space Unlocked Being researched Locked
  1. 2009Hyperspectral imagingPilot and early commercial Unlocked.
  2. 2023Satellite methane detectionPilot and early commercial Unlocked.
  1. 2023Operator response to UNEP satellite alertsIn progress Being researched.
  2. 2024Commercial satellite with finer resolution in orbitDone Unlocked.
  3. 2024One satellite detection followed by a reported repairDone Unlocked.
  4. Date not recordedDaily global methane maps from Sentinel-5PDone Unlocked.
  5. Date not recordedVerified repairs across many alerted sitesIn progress Being researched.
  6. Date not recordedDedicated methane satellite completing a multi-year missionNot started Locked.
  7. Date not recordedAttribution of most large leaks to a named facilityNot started Locked.
  1. GoalFinding every methane leak from spaceGoalRequires: Satellite methane detection, Hyperspectral imaging, Daily global methane maps from Sentinel-5P, Commercial satellite with finer resolution in orbit, One satellite detection followed by a reported repair, Operator response to UNEP satellite alerts, Verified repairs across many alerted sites, Dedicated methane satellite completing a multi-year mission, Attribution of most large leaks to a named facility. Locked.

The road so far

3 of 7 steps done, 2 in progress.

  1. DoneDaily global methane maps from Sentinel-5P

    The TROPOMI instrument on Europe's Sentinel-5P maps methane across the globe, with pixels of up to 7 by 5.5 km. A 2023 study applied an automated detection method to 2021 data and confirmed 2,974 plumes, with an estimated mean source rate of 44 tonnes per hour. The authors state that TROPOMI can only be used to pinpoint the sources of the largest and most isolated point sources. [4]

  2. Done · Aug 2024Commercial satellite with finer resolution in orbit

    Carbon Mapper's Tanager-1 launched in August 2024. Carbon Mapper reports 5,392 published methane plumes from its first detection on 19 September 2024 to 16 September 2025. These are vendor figures, and the article does not give a detection limit. [5][6]

  3. Done · Oct 2024One satellite detection followed by a reported repair

    Tanager-1 detected a plume on 9 October 2024 from a leaking oil and gas gathering pipeline in the Texas Permian Basin, with an estimated rate of 7,100 ± 1,100 kg of methane per hour. The operator reported the leak as voluntarily repaired, and a Tanager observation on 24 October 2024 detected no methane at that location. The paper states that further empirical field testing is needed to confirm its precision and detection-limit results. This is one documented case, not a measure of how often repairs follow alerts. [5]

  4. In progress · 2023Operator response to UNEP satellite alerts

    UNEP's Methane Alert and Response System (MARS) began in 2023 and sends satellite-based notifications to operators and governments. The IEA reports that about 12% of MARS notifications received a response globally in 2025. UNEP's figure for 2024 was 1%, as reported by Eye on Global Transparency. The IEA describes a five-step process, with target windows of 30, 60 and 90 days for Levels 1 to 3 to complete all five steps. It says the timelines are intended to be ambitious and not rigid or binding. Eye on Global Transparency's own reading of the MARS database gives about 14%. [1][3]

  5. In progressVerified repairs across many alerted sites

    Carbon Mapper says that from a targeted initiative of nearly 50 potentially actionable events, with over a dozen notifications issued, 85% have either been mitigated or are being addressed. The article does not describe how these outcomes were verified. Eye on Global Transparency notes that UNEP does not disclose how often mitigation follows notification. [6][3]

  6. Not startedDedicated methane satellite completing a multi-year mission

    EDF announced on 1 July 2025 that MethaneSAT lost contact on 20 June 2025, and that the satellite has lost power and is likely not recoverable. The cause is under investigation. The IEA reports that its readings covered about 23 basins in 16 countries during its year of operation. The sources reviewed do not describe a successor dedicated methane mission. [9][2]

  7. Not startedAttribution of most large leaks to a named facility

    TROPOMI can only pinpoint the largest and most isolated point sources. Sector attribution relies on bottom-up emission inventories, which may miss super-emitters, so large transient emissions can be assigned to the wrong sector. Tanager is designed to trace super-emitters to a specific location, but the sources reviewed do not show facility-level attribution for most large leaks worldwide. [4][8]

Why it matters

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas. Oil and gas sites release large amounts of it, sometimes in short, sharp events. If satellite alerts lead to fast repairs, the cuts could be large. If alerts go unanswered, satellites will see the leaks without anyone stopping them.

What stands in the way

  • Detection depends on conditions. Carbon Mapper's specification gives a 90% probability of detecting 90 to 180 kg of methane per hour for Tanager, varying with imaging mode and with conditions such as 3 metres per second wind. The IEA summarises this as about 100 kg per hour, depending on conditions. The Tanager-1 paper predicts minimum detection limits of about 64 to 126 kg of methane per hour under stated conditions (25% albedo, 45 degree solar zenith angle, 3 m/s wind). It says further empirical field testing is needed to confirm its detection performance.
  • Coverage is partial. The sources reviewed do not give the share of large leaks worldwide that satellites detect, and Sentinel-5P can only pinpoint the largest and most isolated sources.
  • Operators rarely respond. About 12% of MARS notifications received a response in 2025, according to the IEA, and UNEP does not disclose how often mitigation follows a notification.
  • Repairs are verified in few cases. The Permian case rests on one operator report and one later satellite pass, and the 85% figure in the Carbon Mapper campaign has no described verification method.
  • Attribution depends on inventories. Sector attribution relies on bottom-up emission inventories, and large transient emissions may be misattributed.
  • Single-mission risk. MethaneSAT lost contact in June 2025 and is likely not recoverable, and the sources reviewed do not describe a successor mission.

Signals to watch

  • Published MARS response rates rising above the 2025 figure of about 12%, with the response windows met.
  • Data from Tanager-2 after its launch on 1 October 2026, including any published figures on revisit frequency.
  • Independent validation of Tanager detection limits.
  • The cause of the MethaneSAT loss, and the additional scenes EDF says it will release over the coming months.
  • Repair records linked to satellite alerts, with dates and an independent check on the repair.
  • Routine use of a higher-resolution satellite to confirm TROPOMI detections at facility level.

Sources

  1. other
    Responding to Satellite Notifications from the Methane Alert and Response System
    International Energy Agency, 4 May 2026.
  2. other
    Global Methane Tracker 2026: Recent insights from methane emissions studies
    International Energy Agency, 2026.
  3. news
    UNEP Describes Methane Mitigation Successes; Transparency Issues Remain
    Toby McIntosh. Eye on Global Transparency, 23 Apr 2026.
  4. peer reviewed paper
    Automated detection and monitoring of methane super-emitters using satellite data
    Berend J. Schuit. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Sept 2023.
  5. peer reviewed paper
    The Carbon Mapper emissions monitoring system
    Riley Duren. Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 24 Nov 2025.
  6. company announcement
    Tanager-1: One Year in Space
    Carbon Mapper, 23 Sept 2025.
  7. other
    Carbon Mapper product guide: Detailed Tanager Performance Specifications, Final Operational Orbit
    Carbon Mapper, 7 Oct 2026.
  8. company announcement
    Tanager 2 Launch to Scale Up Carbon Mapper's Methane Impact
    Carbon Mapper (via PR Newswire), 1 Oct 2026.
  9. other
    MethaneSAT Loses Contact with Satellite
    Environmental Defense Fund, 1 Jul 2025.

Last reviewed 21 Oct 2026.