Cheap lidar in every car

Will lidar become standard on ordinary cars?

Lidar is now fitted to cars in large numbers, mostly in China and mostly for driver assistance. Hesai reported 1,381,133 lidar units for ADAS (driver assistance) applications in 2025, up from 456,386 in 2024, although its release says ADAS covers passenger and commercial vehicles. Hesai also says Li Auto has made lidar standard on all its new models since May 2025. Volvo fitted lidar to its EX90 and ES90, then dropped it after ending its supply deal with Luminar. Tesla's system is camera-based, and in 2021 Tesla announced that Model 3 and Model Y cars would move to cameras without radar. Lidar is not yet standard on ordinary cars in general, and the sources reviewed do not show what a mass-market car would pay for it.

AI illustration · Illustrative scene, not a photograph of the specific device or experiment.
WHERE WE AREScaling up

Nearly here. It works and is being scaled up.

Lidar is made in volume for cars. Hesai reported 1,381,133 ADAS lidar units in 2025, and it says one carmaker, Li Auto, has made lidar standard across its new models. The evidence comes mainly from Chinese suppliers and carmakers, and one Western carmaker has removed lidar from its cars. Lidar is not yet standard on ordinary cars in general, so the stage is scaling rather than widespread.

The tech tree

Everything recorded on Vrulum that this future needs, oldest foundations at the top and the goal at the bottom. Lines show what each step requires.

What it takes: Cheap lidar in every car Unlocked Being researched Locked
  1. 1856ManufacturingIndustrial steelmakingCommercial Unlocked.
  1. 1774ManufacturingPrecision machine tools and interchangeable partsCommercialRequires: Industrial steelmaking. Unlocked.
  1. 1967Modern systemsCar electronics and engine controlCommercial Unlocked.
  2. 3500 BCMovementThe wheel and axleCommercial Unlocked.
  3. 1712PowerThe steam engineCommercialRequires: Precision machine tools and interchangeable parts. Unlocked.
  4. 1859PowerLead-acid batteriesCommercial Unlocked.
  5. 1859PowerPetroleum refiningCommercial Unlocked.
  1. 1816ControlVehicle steeringCommercialRequires: The wheel and axle. Unlocked.
  2. 1827ControlClutches, gearboxes and differentialsCommercialRequires: Precision machine tools and interchangeable parts. Unlocked.
  3. 1902ControlVehicle brakesCommercialRequires: Car electronics and engine control. Unlocked.
  4. 1901ManufacturingAssembly-line mass productionCommercialRequires: Precision machine tools and interchangeable parts. Unlocked.
  5. 1952Modern systemsVehicle safety systemsCommercial Unlocked.
  6. 1956Modern systemsCatalytic convertersCommercial Unlocked.
  7. 1964Modern systemsSatellite navigation (GNSS)Commercial Unlocked.
  8. 1750MovementSprings and vehicle suspensionCommercialRequires: The wheel and axle. Unlocked.
  9. 1794MovementRolling bearingsCommercialRequires: Precision machine tools and interchangeable parts. Unlocked.
  10. 1844MovementVulcanised rubber and pneumatic tyresCommercialRequires: The wheel and axle. Unlocked.
  11. 1821PowerThe electric motorCommercialRequires: Industrial steelmaking. Unlocked.
  12. 1860PowerThe internal combustion engineCommercialRequires: The steam engine, Petroleum refining, Precision machine tools and interchangeable parts. Unlocked.
  13. 1976PowerLithium-ion batteriesCommercialRequires: Lead-acid batteries. Unlocked.
  1. 1769VehicleThe motor carCommercialRequires: The wheel and axle, Vulcanised rubber and pneumatic tyres, Springs and vehicle suspension, Rolling bearings, The internal combustion engine, The electric motor, Lead-acid batteries, Vehicle steering, Vehicle brakes, Clutches, gearboxes and differentials, Assembly-line mass production, Industrial steelmaking, Car electronics and engine control, Vehicle safety systems, Catalytic converters, Satellite navigation (GNSS), Lithium-ion batteries, Petroleum refining, Precision machine tools and interchangeable parts, The steam engine. Unlocked.
  1. 2016Solid-state lidarPilot and early commercial Unlocked.
  2. 2019Autonomous road vehiclesPilot and early commercialRequires: The motor car, Satellite navigation (GNSS). Unlocked.
  1. 2021Camera-only driver assistance in volumeDone Unlocked.
  2. 2025Lidar shipped in volume for driver assistanceDone Unlocked.
  3. 2025Second Chinese supplier reports large volumesDone Unlocked.
  4. 2025Lidar split by price tier at BYDIn progress Being researched.
  5. 2025Lidar standard across one carmaker's new modelsDone Unlocked.
  6. 2025Lidar priced at about USD 200In progress Being researched.
  7. 2025Volvo drops lidar from EX90 and ES90Done Unlocked.
  8. 2026Camera-only performance in poor visibility under reviewIn progress Being researched.
  9. 2026Hesai sets a 2026 volume outlookIn progress Being researched.
  1. GoalCheap lidar in every carGoalRequires: Solid-state lidar, Autonomous road vehicles, Lidar shipped in volume for driver assistance, Second Chinese supplier reports large volumes, Lidar standard across one carmaker's new models, Lidar split by price tier at BYD, Lidar priced at about USD 200, Hesai sets a 2026 volume outlook, Volvo drops lidar from EX90 and ES90, Camera-only driver assistance in volume, Camera-only performance in poor visibility under review. Locked.

The road so far

5 of 9 steps done, 4 in progress.

  1. Done · 2025Lidar shipped in volume for driver assistance

    Hesai reported 1,381,133 lidar units for ADAS applications in 2025, up from 456,386 in 2024. Its release says ADAS covers passenger and commercial vehicles, so the figure does not show how many units went into private cars. [1]

  2. Done · 2025Second Chinese supplier reports large volumes

    RoboSense reported about 912,000 lidar units sold in 2025, up 67.6%. About 303,000 units went to robotics. The release does not give an ADAS unit figure. [4]

  3. Done · May 2025Lidar standard across one carmaker's new models

    Hesai says Li Auto has made lidar a standard feature across all new models since May 2025, and that Hesai supplies lidar for all models in Li Auto's next-generation assisted driving platform. The announcement does not give unit numbers or contract value, and Li Auto's own configurations were not checked. [2]

  4. In progress · Feb 2025Lidar split by price tier at BYD

    BYD's God's Eye system uses three lidar units on luxury models, one lidar unit on premium brands, and three cameras on more affordable models. The article does not say whether lidar is standard on any BYD model. [5]

  5. In progress · Nov 2025Lidar priced at about USD 200

    KrASIA reports that Hesai has lowered the price of its new ATX lidar to USD 200. The price appears in the article's own reporting, not in a quote from a Hesai executive or a filing, so it has not been independently checked. [3]

  6. In progress · 24 Mar 2026Hesai sets a 2026 volume outlook

    Hesai says it is raising its outlook for 2026 lidar shipments to 3 to 3.5 million units, and is scaling annual capacity to over 4 million units. The outlook covers all lidar, including robotics, and is not split by car type. [1]

  7. Done · Nov 2025Volvo drops lidar from EX90 and ES90

    Volvo said lidar would no longer be offered on any EX90 or ES90 car from model year 2026, citing supply chain risk and Luminar's failure to meet its contractual obligations. Volvo ended its Luminar contract in November 2025. In July 2026 it said it had ended its lidar partnership and stopped developing lidar-based functions for these models. Compensation was offered in some markets. [6][7][8]

  8. Done · May 2021Camera-only driver assistance in volume

    Tesla announced the official transition to Tesla Vision, a camera-based system, without radar on Model 3 and Model Y. Tesla's system relies on cameras rather than lidar. [9]

  9. In progress · Mar 2026Camera-only performance in poor visibility under review

    In March 2026 NHTSA upgraded its preliminary evaluation of Tesla's Full Self-Driving (PE24031, opened October 2024) to an engineering analysis, EA26002. Electrek, reporting the notice, says the analysis covers about 3.2 million vehicles and nine incidents, including one fatality. NHTSA says the system did not detect common roadway conditions that impaired camera visibility, such as sun glare, fog or airborne dust, and did not warn drivers until shortly before crashes. The article reports no recall. [10]

Why it matters

Whether lidar becomes standard decides whether cars can measure distance in low light and at range without relying on cameras alone. It also decides which companies make the sensors and whether low-cost hardware reaches mass-market cars or stays on premium models. Two engineering choices now sit side by side, and each has different safety evidence. Buyers and regulators need clear figures for both.

What stands in the way

  • Supplier risk. Volvo ended its contract with Luminar in November 2025, and Luminar filed for Chapter 11 in December 2025. A single lidar supplier's failure can disrupt a carmaker's plans.
  • Cost. The USD 200 price is a reported figure, not one confirmed in a company filing. No source reviewed gives the cost of lidar in a mass-market car, or the margin that a supplier needs at that price.
  • Evidence in poor visibility. NHTSA is testing how camera-only driver assistance performs in glare, fog and dust. The sources reviewed do not show a comparable public test of lidar-equipped cars in the same conditions.
  • Carmaker choice. Volvo cited supply chain risk when it dropped lidar. Elon Musk has argued that cameras alone can support self-driving, and in 2019 said that anyone relying on lidar is doomed, as reported by KrASIA. Carmakers may choose cameras unless lidar gives a clear safety or customer case.
  • Unclear split between cars and other uses. The Hesai and RoboSense figures include commercial vehicles and robots, so the sources reviewed do not show how many lidar units went into private cars.

Published forecasts

What others have predicted. These are their estimates, not ours.

WhoForecastTimeframeMade
Hesai Group (company outlook)Hesai says it expects 2026 lidar shipments of 3 to 3.5 million units. The figure covers lidar for cars and robots and is a company outlook, not an independent forecast. [1]202624 Mar 2026

Signals to watch

  • Hesai or RoboSense reporting ADAS unit volumes for passenger cars separately from commercial vehicles.
  • A Western carmaker naming lidar as standard on a mass-market model, not only on premium or electric flagship models.
  • NHTSA closing EA26002, or ordering a recall, after the engineering analysis.
  • A lidar supplier publishing a unit price for a car sensor in a filing or audited accounts.
  • Hesai's 2026 quarterly shipment figures tracking towards its 3 to 3.5 million unit outlook.

Sources

  1. company announcement
    Hesai Group Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Unaudited Financial Results
    Hesai Group (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.1, SEC EDGAR), 24 Mar 2026.
  2. company announcement
    Hesai Secures Exclusive Lidar Design Wins for Li Auto's New-Generation Assisted Driving Platform
    Hesai Group (company announcement), 11 Nov 2025.
  3. news
    China LiDAR maker Hesai looks to prove Musk wrong with USD 200 model
    KrASIA, 15 Nov 2025.
  4. company announcement
    RoboSense Beat Expectations, Achieved First-Ever Quarterly Profit on Strong Robotics Growth
    RoboSense (release distributed by PR Newswire), 25 Mar 2026.
  5. news
    BYD Rolls Out God's Eye Tech Across NEVs
    just-auto, 11 Feb 2025.
  6. news
    Volvo Ends Relationship With Luminar, Drops Lidar For 2026 Models
    Justin Hughes. Jalopnik, 23 Nov 2025.
  7. news
    Volvo drops lidar for good on EX90 and ES90, pays owner compensation
    Fred Lambert. Electrek, 29 Jul 2026.
  8. company announcement
    Luminar Technologies, Inc. Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.2 (disclosure statement)
    Luminar Technologies, Inc. (SEC EDGAR), 29 Jan 2026.
  9. news
    Tesla announces transition to 'Tesla Vision' without radar, warns of limitations at first
    Fred Lambert. Electrek, 25 May 2021.
  10. news
    Tesla is one step away from having to recall FSD in NHTSA visibility crash probe
    Fred Lambert. Electrek, 19 Mar 2026.

Last reviewed 21 Oct 2026.