A self-sustaining settlement on Mars

How far are we from a self-sustaining settlement on Mars?

No crewed mission has landed on Mars, and no source reviewed shows a Mars habitat, propellant plant or life-support system running without Earth supplies. Some parts have been demonstrated in limited form. MOXIE made oxygen on Mars at small scale, and the ISS reached 98% total water recovery. NASA's 2024 architecture update names fission as the primary surface power source for crews, but gives no power figure or schedule for it. A self-sustaining settlement would need many of these parts to work together for years.

AI illustration · Illustrative scene, not a photograph of the specific device or experiment.
WHERE WE AREScience unproven

Very far away. The basic science has not been shown to work.

Several individual functions have been shown in limited form. MOXIE produced oxygen on Mars at demonstration scale, and the ISS reached 98% total water recovery in low Earth orbit. No source reviewed shows a Mars system that makes or recycles enough of its own air, water, food, power and propellant to survive without resupply. The Mars-specific claims rest on models, architecture studies and an analogue, so the stage is science-unproven for the settlement as a whole. No single TRL applies to the whole settlement.

The tech tree

Everything recorded on Vrulum that this future needs, oldest foundations at the top and the goal at the bottom. Lines show what each step requires.

What it takes: A self-sustaining settlement on Mars Unlocked Being researched Locked
  1. 2017Asteroid miningResearch and prototypes Being researched.
  1. 2014In-space manufacturingResearch and prototypesRequires: Asteroid mining. Being researched.
  1. 1964Reusable launch vehiclesPilot and early commercialRequires: In-space manufacturing. Unlocked.
  2. 2021Making oxygen and fuel on MarsResearch and prototypes Being researched.
  1. 2013Radiation measured in transit and on the Martian surfaceDone Unlocked.
  2. 2023Water recovery on the International Space StationDone Unlocked.
  3. 2023Oxygen made from Martian atmosphere at demonstration scaleDone Unlocked.
  4. 2024Fission chosen as baseline surface power for early crewed Mars missionsIn progress Being researched.
  5. 2025Propellant plant from Martian ice and CO2 modelledIn progress Being researched.
  6. 2025Year-long crew isolation analogueIn progress Being researched.
  7. 2026Preliminary Martian dust exposure limit for crewsIn progress Being researched.
  8. Date not recordedUncrewed life-support and propellant plant running on MarsNot started Locked.
  9. Date not recordedCrewed expedition living on stored supplies and local productionNot started Locked.
  1. GoalA self-sustaining settlement on MarsGoalRequires: Reusable launch vehicles, In-space manufacturing, Making oxygen and fuel on Mars, Radiation measured in transit and on the Martian surface, Oxygen made from Martian atmosphere at demonstration scale, Water recovery on the International Space Station, Year-long crew isolation analogue, Fission chosen as baseline surface power for early crewed Mars missions, Propellant plant from Martian ice and CO2 modelled, Preliminary Martian dust exposure limit for crews, Uncrewed life-support and propellant plant running on Mars, Crewed expedition living on stored supplies and local production. Locked.

The road so far

3 of 9 steps done, 4 in progress.

  1. Done · Dec 2013Radiation measured in transit and on the Martian surface

    Curiosity's Radiation Assessment Detector measured the radiation environment during cruise to Mars and on the surface. NASA's reference mission (180 days outbound, a 500-day surface stay and 180 days back) with RAD measurements behind spacecraft shielding gives an estimate of about 1 sievert. This is an estimate for that mission profile, not a dose measured in a crew. [2]

  2. Done · Sept 2023Oxygen made from Martian atmosphere at demonstration scale

    MOXIE on NASA's Perseverance rover made 122 grams of oxygen over 16 runs, with a peak of 12 grams per hour at 98% purity or better. The article does not say whether the oxygen was stored or used. [3]

  3. Done · Jun 2023Water recovery on the International Space Station

    NASA reported 98% total water recovery on the ISS in June 2023, with the Brine Processor Assembly helping to reach that figure. The ISS is a low Earth orbit station. The source does not say how the figure would apply to a Mars habitat. [4]

  4. In progress · Oct 2025Year-long crew isolation analogue

    NASA's CHAPEA Mission 2 is a 378-day simulated Mars mission in a 3D-printed habitat at Johnson Space Center in Houston. The crew entered on 19 October 2025 and remains until 31 October 2026. The page describes a simulation, not a flight to Mars. [5]

  5. In progress · 13 Dec 2024Fission chosen as baseline surface power for early crewed Mars missions

    In December 2024, NASA said its decision is to use fission as the primary source of power on the Martian surface to sustain crews. NASA says fission power is unaffected by day and night cycles or potential dust storms. The release gives no power figure, funding amount or mission date. [1]

  6. In progress · Jul 2025Propellant plant from Martian ice and CO2 modelled

    A 2025 NASA extended abstract assesses a Martian ISRU plant that would mine water ice and extract CO2 from the atmosphere to make liquid methane and oxygen. It assesses plants producing 30 and 300 metric tons of propellant over one Martian year. The abstract assesses a proposed plant; the sources reviewed do not show one built. [6]

  7. In progress · Jul 2026Preliminary Martian dust exposure limit for crews

    In July 2026 NASA published a preliminary limit for airborne Martian dust of 0.1 mg/m³, as a 24-hour time-weighted average for particles under 10 micrometres, in exposure scenarios up to 30 days. NASA calls it an initial, risk-informed limit and notes that no authentic airborne Martian dust has been returned. The sources reviewed do not show a habitat meeting the limit. [7]

  8. Not startedUncrewed life-support and propellant plant running on Mars

    No source reviewed shows an integrated plant on Mars that extracts water, makes oxygen and propellant, handles waste and stores cryogens over a full mission. Such a plant would need to run unattended through dust storms and faults before crews rely on it.

  9. Not startedCrewed expedition living on stored supplies and local production

    No crewed mission has landed on Mars. A short expedition would probably depend heavily on stored food, spares and backup systems, while testing limited local production.

Why it matters

A settlement that could survive without regular cargo from Earth would change what Mars missions can be. It would also raise questions about who gets access to water ice and other resources, and about protecting places where life might exist. Separating what has been measured from what is only modelled keeps those discussions grounded.

What stands in the way

  • Mars surface power: NASA's 2024 release names fission as the primary surface power source for crews, but gives no power figure, funding amount or mission date.
  • Dust: NASA's 2026 exposure limit is preliminary, and the sources reviewed do not show a habitat meeting it.
  • Ice and propellant plant: the 2025 NASA abstract assesses a proposed plant, and the sources reviewed do not show one built on Mars. MOXIE made 122 grams of oxygen over 16 runs, far below the 30 metric ton propellant scenario in that abstract.
  • Closed life support: the ISS water result is for a low Earth orbit station. The sources reviewed do not show a Mars habitat recovering air, water and food without resupply for years.
  • Radiation and health: the 1 sievert figure is an estimate for one reference mission profile, not a measured crew dose.

Signals to watch

  • An uncrewed plant on Mars that makes oxygen or propellant from local resources at a rate stated in published results.
  • A flight-qualified surface fission power system, or a Mars power demonstration with a stated schedule.
  • Published results showing a Mars habitat meeting the 2026 dust exposure limit in operation.
  • Closed-loop life-support results from an isolation analogue or a Mars system, with the system boundary and losses stated.
  • A dated, sourced schedule from NASA for a crewed Mars surface mission in place of the open-ended segment.

Sources

  1. government report
    NASA Outlines Latest Moon to Mars Plans in 2024 Architecture Update
    NASA, 13 Dec 2024.
  2. government report
    Radiation Exposure Comparisons with Mars Trip Calculation
    NASA Science, 9 Dec 2013.
  3. government report
    NASA's Oxygen-Generating Experiment MOXIE Completes Mars Mission
    NASA/JPL, 6 Sept 2023.
  4. government report
    NASA Achieves Water Recovery Milestone on International Space Station
    NASA, 20 Jun 2023.
  5. government report
    Crew Health and Performance Exploration Analog
    NASA, 14 Apr 2026.
  6. conference paper
    Assessing the Feasibility of a Martian ISRU Propellant Plant
    Noah L. Andersen, Avery L. Carlson, Kyle L. Ostendorp et al.. NASA Technical Reports Server, 22 Jul 2025.
  7. government report
    Establishing Crew Exposure Limits of Martian Dust
    NASA, 21 Jul 2026.

Last reviewed 21 Oct 2026.