Terraforming Mars

How far are we from terraforming Mars?

Terraforming means deliberately changing a planet's environment so that it could support life. No terraforming method has been demonstrated. The main published assessment of Mars' carbon dioxide, a 2018 study by Jakosky and Edwards in Nature Astronomy, found that the carbon dioxide accessible on Mars would not give significant greenhouse warming with present-day technology. Since then, 2025 and 2026 modelling studies suggest that engineered aerosols could warm Mars in some models, but water-cycle feedbacks and particle properties remain unresolved, and no warming experiment has been carried out on Mars. Most Mars ideas in the sources reviewed are proposals or speculation.

AI illustration · Illustrative scene, not a photograph of the specific device or experiment.
WHERE WE AREScience unproven

Very far away. The basic science has not been shown to work.

The sources reviewed describe observation, analysis and modelling of Mars. They do not describe a working terraforming method. The 2018 carbon dioxide inventory concluded that present-day technology cannot give significant greenhouse warming from the reservoirs assessed. The 2025 to 2026 aerosol studies are climate models, and the 2017 magnetic-dipole work is an early modelling exploration with no hardware. The conclusions apply to the reservoirs and methods studied, not to every conceivable future technology, so they should not be presented as a universal impossibility.

The tech tree

Everything recorded on Vrulum that this future needs, oldest foundations at the top and the goal at the bottom. Lines show what each step requires.

What it takes: Terraforming Mars Unlocked Being researched Locked
  1. 2017Asteroid miningResearch and prototypes Being researched.
  1. 2014In-space manufacturingResearch and prototypesRequires: Asteroid mining. Being researched.
  1. 1931AerogelsCommercial Unlocked.
  2. 1964Reusable launch vehiclesPilot and early commercialRequires: In-space manufacturing. Unlocked.
  1. 2015Atmospheric loss from Mars measuredDone Unlocked.
  2. 2017Artificial magnetic dipole at Mars L1 exploredIn progress Being researched.
  3. 2018Accessible Mars carbon dioxide inventoriedDone Unlocked.
  4. 2019Regional solid-state greenhouse concept modelledDone Unlocked.
  5. 2026Engineered aerosol warming modelledIn progress Being researched.
  6. 2026Research roadmap for assessing Mars warmingIn progress Being researched.
  7. 2026Mass and energy floors for an open-air atmosphere estimatedDone Unlocked.
  8. Date not recordedMethod to add a breathable atmosphereNot started Locked.
  9. Date not recordedStable surface water and workable soilNot started Locked.
  10. Date not recordedMass, energy and climate budget for a specific Mars proposalNot started Locked.
  11. Date not recordedEnclosed local habitat on MarsNot started Locked.
  12. Date not recordedPlanetary-protection review before any release experimentNot started Locked.
  13. Date not recordedGovernance for deliberate planetary modificationNot started Locked.
  1. GoalTerraforming MarsGoalRequires: Reusable launch vehicles, In-space manufacturing, Aerogels, Accessible Mars carbon dioxide inventoried, Mass and energy floors for an open-air atmosphere estimated, Atmospheric loss from Mars measured, Artificial magnetic dipole at Mars L1 explored, Regional solid-state greenhouse concept modelled, Engineered aerosol warming modelled, Research roadmap for assessing Mars warming, Method to add a breathable atmosphere, Stable surface water and workable soil, Mass, energy and climate budget for a specific Mars proposal, Enclosed local habitat on Mars, Planetary-protection review before any release experiment, Governance for deliberate planetary modification. Locked.

The road so far

4 of 13 steps done, 3 in progress.

  1. Done · Jul 2018Accessible Mars carbon dioxide inventoried

    Jakosky and Edwards assessed the carbon dioxide accessible on Mars. They concluded there is not enough for significant greenhouse warming with present-day technology. NASA's 2018 news release says vaporising the polar ice caps would raise surface pressure to about 1.2% of Earth's. A NASA resource page, which summarises the MAVEN science team's analysis, says processing all sources available on Mars would raise pressure only to about 7% of Earth's. Both figures are far below the pressure the sources say would be needed. [1][2][3]

  2. Done · May 2026Mass and energy floors for an open-air atmosphere estimated

    A 2026 single-author analysis in APS Open Science gives order-of-magnitude floors for open-air Mars. It states Mars needs about 3.89 x 10^15 kg of atmosphere per millibar of global mean surface pressure. For the oxygen and buffer-gas pressures it uses, it gives inventories of about 9 x 10^17 kg and 1.9 x 10^18 kg. It treats accessible endogenous carbon dioxide as an order of tens of millibars, and says a 20 mbar case does not close melt-class climates or breathable composition. These are model-based bounds, not a design or a detailed climate forecast. [6]

  3. Done · Nov 2015Atmospheric loss from Mars measured

    MAVEN measurements put the present-day loss of Martian atmospheric gas to the solar wind at about 100 grams per second. NASA reports that erosion increases significantly during solar storms. Any atmosphere added to Mars would need to be kept, so this loss is a central constraint. [4]

  4. In progress · Aug 2017Artificial magnetic dipole at Mars L1 explored

    A 2017 conference abstract says the authors have started to explore the effects on Mars of an artificial magnetic dipole field at the L1 Lagrange point. The modelling is described as started, not complete, and the sources reviewed do not report a built shield. [5]

  5. Done · Jul 2019Regional solid-state greenhouse concept modelled

    A 2019 Nature Astronomy study modelled a thin layer of silica aerogel, 2 to 3 cm thick, placed over ice-rich areas as a solid-state greenhouse. The layer transmits visible light and blocks ultraviolet, and could keep the ground beneath it above the melting point of water at selected sites without thickening the whole atmosphere. The study is a modelling concept for local sites, not a tested habitat, and it does not address planetary warming. [7]

  6. In progress · Mar 2026Engineered aerosol warming modelled

    Climate models from 2025 to 2026 test whether engineered aerosols released on Mars could warm the planet. A 2025 preprint, accepted by Geophysical Research Letters according to its arXiv record, finds that the winds carrying released particles respond to infrared heating, which helps particles rise and spread, and reports that these feedbacks enable engineered-aerosol warming in its model. A 2026 Mars climate study finds that warming changes water vapour and polar ice, and that these changes persist for at least decades after aerosol loading stops. A 2026 preprint simulates a single injection of aluminium nanoparticles and runs the simulation over a full Martian year. The authors identify unresolved particle agglomeration, dry deposition and water-cycle feedbacks, and the 2026 water-cycle study concludes that much more data is needed before warming could become feasible. [8][9][10]

  7. In progress · Apr 2026Research roadmap for assessing Mars warming

    A 2026 preprint with 25 authors sets out a research roadmap for whether Mars could be warmed. Its abstract says it aims to identify what would need to be true, what it would cost and what could go wrong. It states that the roadmap does not presuppose that warming Mars is desirable. It is a non-peer-reviewed preprint. [11]

  8. Not startedMethod to add a breathable atmosphere

    No source reviewed shows a method that would add enough gas to Mars, and keep it, to make the air breathable. The known carbon dioxide reservoirs fall well short of the pressure the sources say would be needed.

  9. Not startedStable surface water and workable soil

    No source reviewed shows how to create stable surface water or workable soil on Mars at any useful scale.

  10. Not startedMass, energy and climate budget for a specific Mars proposal

    No source reviewed gives a complete mass, energy, transport and climate budget for a specific Mars proposal. The 2026 aerosol climate studies model specific scenarios, but the abstracts reviewed do not give full budgets. Each proposal would need its own quantitative assessment and timescale.

  11. Not startedEnclosed local habitat on Mars

    Pressurised, enclosed habitats control a small volume rather than the planet's atmosphere, so they are a separate scope. A 2024 preprint, in press at Astrobiology when checked, gives a conceptual argument that biologically generated barriers transmitting visible light could make habitable conditions possible between 1 and 5 astronomical units. It is not a Mars test. No source reviewed shows a closed-loop habitat operating on Mars. [12]

  12. Not startedPlanetary-protection review before any release experiment

    NASA JPL's planetary-protection research group is studying whether organisms could survive and reproduce in Mars special regions. No release experiment has yet had a formal planetary-protection review in the sources reviewed. [13]

  13. Not startedGovernance for deliberate planetary modification

    The sources reviewed do not identify a legitimate international decision process that could authorise deliberate modification of Mars. This record does not reach a legal conclusion.

Why it matters

Mars is a frequently discussed candidate for a second world that people might one day live on, and changing a whole planet would be a very large engineering and ethical commitment. Keeping apart what has been measured, what has been modelled and what is speculative helps public debate stay grounded. Warming Mars and making it breathable are different goals, and enclosed local habitats are a separate and more limited question from changing the planet's atmosphere.

What stands in the way

  • The known Mars carbon dioxide reservoirs are too small: the 2018 study found they would not give significant greenhouse warming with present-day technology.
  • Atmospheric escape: the solar wind strips gas from Mars at about 100 grams per second, rising during solar storms, so any added atmosphere would have to be retained.
  • Model uncertainty: the 2025 and 2026 aerosol-warming models leave particle agglomeration, dry deposition and water-cycle feedbacks unresolved.
  • Water and soil: no source reviewed shows how to create stable surface water or workable soil.
  • Mass, energy and transport budgets have not been published for any specific Mars proposal in the sources reviewed.
  • Ethics and governance: the sources reviewed do not identify who could authorise deliberate planetary modification.

Signals to watch

  • A peer-reviewed study quantifies imported or manufactured volatile sources at a scale that would give significant warming on Mars.
  • New spacecraft measurements change the published estimate of atmospheric loss from Mars.
  • Peer-reviewed evaluation of the 2026 Mars climate-model studies, including water-cycle feedbacks and different seasonal or regional scenarios.
  • A specific Mars proposal publishes its mass, energy, climate and timescale assessment.
  • Closed-loop life-support results from enclosed habitats are published in peer-reviewed work.
  • Planetary-protection rules or international guidance are proposed for deliberate environmental modification of another world.
  • Aeolus, a NASA Mars atmospheric-science mission with a 2028 launch target, aims to provide a daily, global view of Martian winds, temperatures, dust and clouds. NASA's release does not mention terraforming or climate intervention, so Aeolus should not be counted as warming progress.

Sources

  1. peer reviewed paper
    Inventory of CO2 available for terraforming Mars
    Bruce M. Jakosky, Christopher S. Edwards. Nature Astronomy, 30 Jul 2018.
  2. government report
    Mars Terraforming Not Possible Using Present-Day Technology
    William Steigerwald. NASA, 30 Jul 2018.
  3. government report
    Terraforming the Martian Atmosphere
    NASA, 30 Jul 2018.
  4. government report
    NASA Mission Reveals Speed of Solar Wind Stripping Martian Atmosphere
    NASA, 5 Nov 2015.
  5. conference paper
    A Future Mars Environment for Science and Exploration
    J. L. Green, J. L. Hollingsworth, M. A. Kahre et al.. NASA Technical Reports Server, 20 Aug 2017.
  6. peer reviewed paper
    Terraforming Mars: Mass, forcing, and industrial throughput constraints
    Slava G. Turyshev. APS Open Science, 28 May 2026.
  7. peer reviewed paper
    Enabling martian habitability with silica aerogel via the solid-state greenhouse effect
    R. Wordsworth, L. Kerber, C. Cockell. Nature Astronomy, 15 Jul 2019.
  8. preprint
    Atmospheric dynamics of IR-active particles released from Mars' surface
    Mark I. Richardson, Samaneh Ansari, Bowen Fan et al.. arXiv, 2 Apr 2025.
  9. preprint
    Modelling the long-term impacts of artificial warming on the Martian water cycle and surface ice distribution
    Ashwin S. Braude, Edwin S. Kite, Mark I. Richardson et al.. arXiv, 2 Mar 2026.
  10. preprint
    3D Global Climate Simulations of Synthetic Mars Warming
    Tom N. Landefeld, Harald Lesch. arXiv, 13 Oct 2026.
  11. preprint
    A research roadmap for assessing the feasibility of warming Mars
    E. S. Kite, A. Essunfeld, M. H. Hecht et al.. arXiv, 2 Apr 2026.
  12. preprint
    Self-sustaining living habitats in extraterrestrial environments
    Robin Wordsworth, Charles Cockell. arXiv (in press at Astrobiology), 22 Sept 2024.
  13. government report
    Planetary Protection: Current Research
    NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, 21 Oct 2026.
  14. government report
    NASA Announces Public-Private Partnership to Advance Mars Science
    NASA, 17 Jun 2026.

Last reviewed 21 Oct 2026.